Back to School is the perfect time to learn about all the new trends

There are certain moments in the year when culture becomes unusually visible.

The holidays are one. Summer vacation is another. But for me, one of the most revealing is back to school.

Maybe it’s the researcher in me, but the first few weeks of school have always felt like a giant, impromptu ethnography. Hundreds of families suddenly converge in the same place after a summer apart. Kids are comparing backpacks and sneakers. Parents are comparing schedules, activities, and teachers. Everyone is noticing what everyone else has and, just as importantly, what they don’t.

If you pay close attention, you can learn an enormous amount.

The school gate is the focus group you didn’t recruit

Consumer researchers spend a lot of time designing the perfect environment to understand people. We recruit carefully. We write discussion guides. We build screeners.

We ask people to show us what they buy, what they use, and how they make decisions.

But being a researcher also means developing the instinct to notice what’s happening right in front of you. The first day of school is particularly good for this.

What water bottles are suddenly everywhere? What shoes seem to have gone from niche to ubiquitous over the summer? Which backpack is the new status symbol? Are kids decorating things differently? What are parents carrying? What are they talking about while waiting for pickup? 

None of these observations, by themselves, constitute research. But they are signals. And signals are often where good research begins.

Data shows just how much influence kids have on what shows up at the school gate. According to the National Retail Federation, 62% of K–12 back-to-school shoppers say at least half of their spending is a direct result of their child’s influence.

Deloitte finds something similar: 45% of parents say their child has a specific “must-have” back-to-school item this year, and 57% say their child influences them to splurge on it.

That makes the first day of school something more than a parade of new backpacks. It is a physical manifestation of hundreds of small negotiations between kids, parents, peers, algorithms, brands, and budgets. For a consumer researcher, that’s pretty fascinating.

And then there are the parent group chats

If the school gate tells you what people are doing, the parent group chats and Facebook groups can tell you what they’re trying to figure out.

Within days, sometimes hours, you start seeing the questions:

Where did you get that lunchbox?

Does anyone have a recommendation for a tutor?

Are we supposed to buy this calculator?

Has anyone tried that after-school program?

My child says everyone has one of these. Is that actually true?

It is an extraordinary little ecosystem of recommendations, confusion, social proof, problem-solving, and occasionally mild panic. And importantly, it reminds us that trends don’t only spread from influencer to consumer. They move laterally, through communities of people who trust one another.

We often talk about word of mouth as though it is an abstract marketing concept. Parent groups remind us that it is actually incredibly literal. Someone asks a question. Someone else answers. Three people endorse the answer. And suddenly a product or service has a handful of new customers.

That dynamic matters even more when consumers are watching their budgets. Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey estimates that families will spend about $557 per K–12 student this year, with total spending around $30.4 billion. At the same time, 57% of surveyed parents expect the economy to worsen over the next six months.

People are spending. But they are thinking harder about what deserves the spend.

Trends now have two classrooms

Of course, what happens at school is only half the story. The other classroom is digital.

A child sees something on TikTok. Someone wears it to school. Friends notice. Parents hear about it. Someone asks about it in a group chat. Another parent searches for it. And the loop starts again.

The distinction between “online trend” and “real-world trend” increasingly feels artificial.

Deloitte’s data makes that intersection particularly interesting: parents who plan to use search, social media and generative AI during their 2026 back-to-school shopping expect to spend an average of $737, compared with $381 among shoppers who don't plan to use those digital tools.

The NRF also reports that among 18-to-24-year-old back-to-college shoppers, Instagram and TikTok are leading sources of shopping inspiration.

So the question for brands isn’t simply what is trending online. It is: Which online behaviors are surviving contact with the real world?

That is where observation becomes incredibly useful.

So what should brands be watching?

Back-to-school is obviously important for retailers, apparel companies, and technology brands. But I think its usefulness as a cultural listening moment extends much further.

Watch what kids ask for by name. Brand specificity is revealing. There is a big difference between “I need a water bottle” and “I need that water bottle.” The latter tells you something about how brands become social currency.

Watch what parents outsource to other parents. The categories generating constant requests for recommendations, such as tutoring, camps, lunch solutions, transportation, technology, and activities, are often categories where consumers feel overwhelmed or under-informed. That is fertile territory for brands that can reduce uncertainty.

Watch the workarounds. Researchers love workarounds because they reveal unmet needs. The elaborate snack system. The homemade label solution. The three apps parents use because no single one does the job. Where people invent their own solutions, there is often an innovation opportunity.

Watch what disappears. Sometimes the more interesting trend is the thing that suddenly isn’t there anymore. Categories, products, and behaviors can quietly lose relevance long before sales data makes the cultural shift obvious.

And perhaps most importantly, watch what people are willing to splurge on. In a cautious economy, discretionary spending becomes a form of prioritization. Deloitte reports that while families are holding overall back-to-school budgets relatively steady, planned spending on clothing and accessories is up 22%, while technology spending is expected to fall 16%. The question isn’t simply where consumers are spending more or less - it’s why this, and not that?

Good luck to all those parents experiencing the BTS season! I'm right there with you.